While Central Valley counties appear to have all rejected Prop. 1, the statewide upheaval of mental health funding coupled with billions in bonds to fight homelessness, the initiative remains too close to call more than a week after final ballots were cast.
The proposition, championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and written in part by Stockton-based State Sen. Susan Talamantes Eggman, continues to maintain a less than half a percentage point lead as votes are still being counted across the state.
Despite the razor-thin margin, less than 24,000 total votes total, earlier this week the No on Prop. 1 campaign sent out a preemptive concession, saying “it’s likely to pass.”
Paul Simmons, co-founder of the Depression and Bipolar Support Alliance and a director with the No campaign, said the campaign’s concession was released to get their message across again about what they consider to be the harmful effects of Prop. 1.
If passed, the initiative will shift about a third of county behavioral health funding toward housing intervention programs. The proposition also greenlights $6.4 billion in bonds, which will go to public and private developers to build largely institutional treatment and housing facilities.
“Once the governor claims victory, that would be the only oxygen in the room so we decided to put something out. So while it has gotten closer than we thought, we are still thinking that it (we) may ultimately lose,” Simmons said. “But the longer we last the better. If nothing else then the governor knows he can’t just do whatever he wants.”
The governor’s office has not claimed victory yet and counties have until April 4 to finalize results. Certification will then be completed April 12 by the secretary of state.
The No campaign’s concession came a day before the race temporarily tightened midweek to within 1,500 votes – a statistical dead heat. But as more results have trickled in since the initiative has maintained an around 20,000 to 25,000 vote lead.
Still support in the Valley has shifted fully into the No camp. The votes in the region follow a statewide trend of coastal regions approving of the proposition, including much of the Bay Area and Los Angeles area, and inland communities rejecting the initiative.
San Joaquin County, which in early results had the proposition leading, has since flipped to 51.9% No, 48.1% Yes. The neighboring Valley counties of Stanislaus, Merced and Fresno are all against Prop. 1 by firmer margins, with the initiative losing by 57.7%, 56.3% and 56.9% respectively as of Thursday afternoon.
No campaign members said they plan to keep working with legislators and county administrators to lessen what they said could be drastic cuts to some community based and peer support services due to the funding changes.
Supporters of the initiative have said the changes are necessary to refocus resources on those most in need, including those living in encampments and those with serious mental health and substance abuse disorders.
In the Central Valley, latest count numbers from 2022 showed 2,319 unhoused people in the Stockton/San Joaquin County continuum of care, 1,857 in Modesto/Stanislaus County, 855 in Merced/Merced County and 4,216 in Fresno/Madera counties, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
If it ultimately wins, Prop. 1’s changes would become part of a larger statewide overhaul of existing mental health services structures. Across the Central Valley, county officials are in the process of implementing SB 43, which passed last year and will expand who can be placed in involuntary conservatorship and treatment.
Counties are also in various stages of implementing CARE Court, another Newsom-back change to the state’s mental health services which creates a voluntary pathway for people to receive behavioral health services through the judicial branch.
The governor has lent his name and face to the initiative, and the Yes campaign had more than $20 million in funding. Still the grassroots led opposition – which includes many who work in behavioral health fields – said they plan to continue working to improve services and save programs that help to keep people out of homelessness in the first place.
If it ultimately passes, Prop. 1 would shift about $1 billion in funding statewide that has historically gone to counties to use for prevention, early intervention, peer support and other services. That money would instead go toward housing programs meant to deal with the chronically homeless and those with mental health and/or substance abuse disorders.
Meanwhile most of the bonds, about $4.4 billion, would go toward treatment, for both voluntary and involuntary programs. Opponents have said it’s a back-end way to pay for SB 43, which is expected to increase the need for involuntary treatment facilities but did not come with any funding to expand infrastructure.
The other $2 billion would be to build or renovate about 4,350 housing units for those experiencing homelessness, mental health and/or substance abuse disorders.
“I think the first impacts (if Prop. 1 passes) people will see are overcrowded jails. The infrastructure and workforce are not available,” said LaTanya Ri’Chard, a Merced-based peer support specialist who is part of the No campaign. “The housing, mental health and substance use crisis will get worse. Forced treatment is going to drive people underground and away from seeking help.”
Marijke Rowland is the senior health equity reporter for the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, a nonprofit newsroom based in Merced, in collaboration with the California Health Care Foundation (CHCF).